This Remarkable Rich Vein of Form Drives Aston Villa's Improbable Title Charge
It was 60 days prior that the Villa attacker found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as the Villa manager admonished him for not reading a pass in behind. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his displays were a symptom or the reason for the side's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, however, the sideline response was far more favourable. When the in-form star curled home his second strike to reinstate his side's advantage, the boss ripped off his winter coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The team marched on to a 10th successive win and after failing to win any of their first six games, now sit just three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Title Contenders?
That’s an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. History, a general sense of the club, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they've rarely been completely commanding this season, despite the fact the positive results have piled up.
As per the data, twice all season have Villa had an expected goals figure significantly higher than the other team. For a side who have put together ten consecutive victories, the Villans look curiously susceptible – however right now the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on their star man to save the day with some crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened versus the Red Devils.
The initial strike originated from a brilliant finish, bent right inside the post from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of goal number one capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opponents had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent they have to face as the season progresses. The forward, in all likelihood, will not continue to blasting the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Could it be another reality whereby, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent could transform into the player he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are due to regain fitness, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, nobody expected this. Nobody thought the team would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, few could imagine the midfielder as the year closed would be at the forefront of a title charge while looking like a crucial England player.
This remarkable period is to be savoured exactly since it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner stood in front of the home supporters after the match conducting the cheers, it was clear to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and should be relished.